Kristian Skrede Gleditsch Co-Authors New Science Advances Study on War Escalation
A new study co-authored by LASA Member Kristian Skrede Gleditsch examines how escalation dynamics influence the eventual scale and severity of civil and interstate wars.
Published in Science Advances on 5 August 2026, the study, “Escalation dynamics and the severity of wars,” was conducted by Aaron Clauset, Barbara F. Walter, Lars-Erik Cederman and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch.
Drawing on detailed data concerning civil and interstate wars between 1946 and 2008, the researchers considered several possible explanations for why some armed conflicts become exceptionally large and destructive. These included whether such wars begin at a high level of intensity, persist for an extended period, or escalate substantially over time.
The findings identify escalation dynamics—changes in the intensity of fighting during a conflict—as a central mechanism in the development of large wars. The study finds that very large civil wars tend eventually to show a greater tendency towards de-escalation, while wars between states retain a continuing risk of further escalation.
According to the research team’s analysis, each additional year of conflict carries approximately a 10 per cent probability of doubling in severity and around a 1 per cent probability of becoming ten times more severe. The results also indicate that neither a war’s initial intensity nor its duration alone is sufficient to explain how destructive it may ultimately become.
The researchers emphasise that escalation introduces substantial uncertainty into attempts to forecast the eventual size of both ongoing and future conflicts. Although the study does not provide a precise forecasting tool, its findings contribute to a better understanding of conflict risk, deterrence, escalation and termination.
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch is Regius Professor of Political Science in the Department of Government at the University of Essex, Director of the Michael Nicholson Centre for Conflict and Cooperation, and a Research Associate at the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
He is a Member of the Luxembourg Academy of Sciences and Arts (LASA).
The study reflects Professor Gleditsch’s continuing research on international conflict and cooperation, political institutions and the spatial dimensions of social and political processes.